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Thursday Morning Weather Blog: Rain & Storms Likely Next Few Days

Get ready for heavy rain in the Ozarks. Find out the details in today's forecast.

April 21, 2011|Meteorologist Natalie Nunn |

Today marks the start of a very active weather pattern for the area.  We are going to see the threat of heavy rain, strong storms, and flooding almost everyday for the next few.  We could see over 11" of rain by Tuesday morning!  That's right, 11" of rain.  That much rain can cause a lot of problems.

Thursday morning is starting off dry but as we progress through the day, the chance of rain will increase.  Showers and storms will develop across the Plains and move in from the SW.  Widespread heavy rain will be possible late today into the overnight hours.  A few stronger storms could develop and the biggest threat with these storms will be large hail.  Most models are showing over an inch of rain for the next 24 hours.

Overnight a warm front is going to move north through the Ozarks.  This is going to cause overnight temperatures to stay steady or even warm a degree or two.  Not a common scenario. 


Friday may be on of the more "dry" days across the area. Heavy rain will be likely south of I-44... again over an inch easily possible.  We should be mostly dry through the morning hours.  If the early morning rain showers exit quickly and we clear out, warm up, and see some sunshine Friday morning, storms will be more likely Friday afternoon.  A cold front is going to move east through the area Friday afternoon.  At first, supercell development will be likely.  Within those supercells, the tornado threat will be elevated.  As the storms continue east, they will turn into a long line of showers and storms with the greatest threat being large hail and strong winds. 

The flooding potential over the next few days will increase with each passing rain shower.  A stationary front is going to set up shop near Missouri and the rain is going to keep going, and going, and going.  Get ready!

Have a wonderful and safe Thursday.

-Meteorologist Natalie Nunn

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