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Heavy Rain and Severe Storms

April 21, 2011|Weather Blog | KSPR Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty

Springfield, MO — It is the beginning of what will be a very soggy next several days. Our first round of rain and storms continues to move through the region. A severe t-storm watch is in effect until 10pm. The main threat will be hail as a warm front lifts to the north.

No surprise, with all of the rain expected a Flash Flood Watch is in effect as shown below.

Here is a look at the radar from 5:23pm tonight, as you can see a large shield of rain continues to move into the viewing area.

Rain will come to an end late tonight as the warm front pushes to the north, and setting the stage for severe storms tomorrow evening. Below is a look at the Day 2 severe weather risk. A slight risk for everyone.

A cold front will push into the area tomorrow evening, and storms will erupt along that front and storms will line up and pose a hail and damaging wind threat. If any individual supercells can develop out ahead of the front then a small window may exist for tornadoes.

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A larger threat for severe storms will exist on Monday as a strong piece of upper level energy with move in with a negatively tilted trough. This in addition to high levels of instability and moisture could set the stage for an impressive severe weather setup, so stay tuned on that one.

In the meantime, rain chances will exist nearly everyday. Below is a look at the GFS bufkit for Springfield. It show between 5 and 6 inches by next Wednesday.

The reason for the exvessive rainfall can be blamed on a stalled out frontal boundary that will setup somewhere across the Ozarks. THAT is the key thing to this forecast. WHERE WILL THE BOUNDARY SETUP? Wherever it does expect the highest rainfall amounts of maybe 8"+.

Below is a look at rainfall forecast for the next several days. A swath of 5" to 8" is likely as shown below.

Well get ready, this will be a very active week of weather. Be careful NEVER drive through flooded roadways and stay tuned for the latest on severe weather.

Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lighty



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